Canada aims to rebound against Ghana

Soccer Betting Lines

09/14/2007 - Hangzhou, China (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Canada and Ghana are both coming off losses in their opening match, and a win is a must for either team if they are to hold out hope of advancing into the quarterfinals.

Canada took a 1-0 lead into halftime against Group C favorites Norway, but yielded a pair of second-half goals in the loss. Ghana was overmatched against Australia and suffered a 4-1 defeat, leaving plenty of room for improvement.

The Canada side that showed up in the first half was what many people expected to see. The North Americans worked their long-ball attack and applied constant pressure to a strong Norway defense. Striker Christine Sinclair displayed why she is such a dangerous weapon as she set up Canada's goal, and the team looked confident as they outplayed the favored Norwegians.

However, a different Canada team came out for the second half. They were passive and allowed Norway to dictate the pace of the game. Canada sat back and let Norway spend the majority of the half in the offensive third of the field, and despite the efforts of keeper Erin McLeod, they conceded two goals.

Against Ghana, Canada will have an easier time maintaining its attack and should be able to drop long balls over the top for Sinclair to run with. The star striker and team captain was a non-factor in the second half of the Norway game, and that needs to change in Canada is going to go anywhere in this competition.

McLeod proved that she is an asset between the posts, and although Canada's effort came up short, they proved that they can play with the world's top teams. Canada should be able to get past Ghana, which would set up a huge contest against Australia on the final day.

Ghana has never advanced past the group stage, and if Wednesday's game against Australia is any indication, that streak will not be broken this year. Ghana, which is the lowest ranked team in the tournament at 47th in the FIFA rankings, looked slow against Australia and they were never able to put together a consistent spell of play.

Team captain Adjoa Bayor failed to make any impact on the match at all, which severely hurt Ghana's chances of winning. Bayor is the playmaker that makes the Black Queens attack work, but without her creativity in the middle of the pitch, Ghana's offense sputtered.

The lone bright spot for Ghana came in the form of striker Anita Amankwa, who scored the team's goal and was able to get in behind the defense on a number of occasions.

However, Amankwa got little help, which is something she will need if Ghana is to have any chance at taking even a point from Canada.

Ghana's attack is nowhere near as potent as Norway's and they will have quite a struggle to crack the strong Canadian defense. Expect Sinclair to find the ball at her feet much more for Canada, and the Ghana defense to have a tough time stopping her.

A big result is what Canada needs to get back on track, and they certainly have the ability to do so against an outclassed Ghana side.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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